Will Shiv Sena Benifit from Separation? Hardly!

Even though Shiv Sena has announced that it would fight the coming Assembly and Lok Sabha elections on its own, the challenge is not an easy one for the party. Shiv Sena has a herculean task ahead of it to attract middle-class and urban voters in the state who have turned to Bharatiya Janata Party lately. The party has set for itself an ambitious goal of winning 25 seats (out of a total 48) in Lok Sabha and 150 seats (out of a total 288) in the Assembly elections that are widely expected to happen before the schedule.

The war-cry given by Shiv Sena is not an easy one for the 50-year old party. It has to achieve exceptionally good performance in Mumbai, Vidarbha and Western Maharashtra regions. The party passed a resolution not to align with the BJP and go solo in the polls to be held next year. The National Executive meeting of the party was held coincidng with birth anniversary of Balasaheb Thackeray, the founder of the party.

BJP and Shiv Sena took advantage of resentment against the then ruling Congress and Nationalist Congress Party during the last Lok Sabha elections when they fought together and Assembly elections that they fought separately. However, BJP had made inroads in all regions except Konkan riding on the Modi wave. Vidarbha, especially Nagpur, is BJP's bastion and eroding the party's base there is a gigantic task.

This time around, political observers have placed their bets on Lok Sabha and Assembly elections being held together. So winning Vidarbha being ruled out, Shiv Sena has to focus on Mumbai, Western Maharashtra and Marathwada. In Mumbai, it cannot gain victory relying solely on the Marathi Manus agenda. Besides, Maharashtra Navnirman Sena is there, alive and kicking, to eat into its Marathi votes. It has had a glimpse of the reality last year during the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation election. On the contrary, north Indians, Gujarati etc. voters seems to vote en masse to BJP.

This is why Uddhav Thackeray spoke about the unadulterated Hindutva during the rally where he announced his decision to go solo. Thackeray has not forgotten how he had to sweat it out while winning back the BMC, the real power house of Shiv Sena. The party, with 63 MLAs and 18 MPs, is an ally of the BJP in the state and Centre but it wants to protect its own identity. That is why it is routinely attacking the BJP-led governments at the Centre and in the state over a variety of issues--from demonetisation and GST to the plight of farmers and cross-border assaults by Pakistan. Thackeray's announcement of contesting elections outside Maharashtra should be seen in this light.