Astrologers Fail the Test

Almost four months after issue was raised, results have come that astrology has failed to pass the first scientific test in India. In this first statistical test, just 45 percent of the predictions by astrologers proved right. The test has given credence to the theory that astrology can not termed as a science.

In what was touted as the first scientific test of astrology in India, Inter University Centre for Astronomy and Astrophysics (IUCAA), Statistics Department of University of Pune and Andhshraddha Nirmulan Samiti (ANS) joined hands to verify the veracity of astrology. Dr. Naralikar alongwith Dr. Narendra Dabholkar of ANS, Prof. Sudhakar Kunte from University of Pune declared the statistical data related to the test in a press conference yesterday.

The project involved collecting and verifying, analysing of a particular data. In May 08, an appeal was made to the astroloher communities to participate in this event. Dr. Naralikar had appealed to the astrologers to come forward for the experiment. The announcement was received with much debate and controversy. Many astrology organisations condemned the initiative under one or another pretext but astrologers in Marathwada and Vidharbha responded to the project.

Those astrologers who came forward, were provided a set of about 40 horoscopes of student. These students were mentally challenged as well as normal one, but their identity was not revealed to anybody. Astrologers were told to analyse the samples and tell exactly which students are mentally challenged and which are not. An important presumption of the test was that if astrologers manage to differentiate the horoscope with an accuracy of more than 90 percent, astrology was proved to be a science. If they could reach the accuracy of 70 percent, then further tests were to be carried out. About 50 percent accuracy was expected to be achieved on the basis of random sampling.

Prakash Ghatpande, convenor of the test said, "Major astrologers decided to boycott the test objecting to the stands of ANS. Majority of amateur astrologers decided to participate in the experiment and they have relied on the data provided by us. ANS activists collected the horoscopes from all over the state. We gave it to the participants. After their replies were received, the encryption was done and thereafter all the data rested with Prof. Kunte. Nobody else, not even Dr. Naralikar and Dr. Dabholkar were aware of it. We can't declare the exact statistics of the experiment right now."

According to the data provided by organisers, 51 astrologers asked for the set of horoscopes but only 27 of them responded. Those not responding did not furnish any reason either. Among those who participated, 15 were amateurs and 8 were professional ones.

Among the 27 participants, the right guesses range from 8 to 24. On an average, 17.25 out of 40 predictions were accurate. It means generally 45 percent predictions are right.

Meanwhile, astrologer community reacted sharply to the findings of the experiment. Siddheshwar Maratkar, director of Jyotish Vidya Prasaraka Mandal addressed a press conference challenging the results. He said that astrologers had boycotted the test citing the wrong method of conducting the tests. "We had demanded that ANS should not be a part of the experiment, there might be 60% or more accurate results but they will not have any bearing on the scientific basis of astrology and the horoscopes with wrong predictions should be given to us for the verification. Even after agreeing to conditions, the results were declared. This is an attempted attack on the foundation of astrology. So we will not take part in any future tests as well."

Meanwhile, Dr. Dabholkar put forward a proposal for one more test. The test will involve analysing the horoscopes of adults and accurately 'predict' the past incidents or trends of a human being.